It’s Sunday, so that means it’s time to highlight one of topics of the week. Whether it’s a bombshell in the world of politics, a barn burner in the realm of news or a shocker in mass media, I profile it here with the added gusto that only plate of french toast and a frothy glass of milk can provide. Check back next week to see what’s on the skillet.
Wow, it’s hard to believe that we’re only days away from choosing a new president. It’s been a very exciting, historic race where everyone’s expectations were tested. Republicans swallowed the bitter pill that is John McCain, a “moderate conservative” who many had a hard time imagining filling Reagan’s shoes. McCain surprised everyone by tapping Sarah Palin, a relative political unknown, as his VP pick, energizing his conservative base but inadvertently alienating many moderate and independent voters.
On the Democrats’ side, a superstar line-up of Democratic challengers was whittled down to Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, two popular potential nominees supported by passionately active Democratic supporters. After a worthy campaign through every primary, Clinton fell to the populist wave that is Barack Obama, the first black man to be nominated for president by one of the major political parties.
So how does it all end? Some say that McCain has a 3 percent chance of winning this election, given his position in many state polls. Many political pundits (including “Doonesbury” writer Garry Trudeau) are calling this election for Obama. Maybe that makes predicting the results a bit easier than previous years, but despite that, It’s always fun to see how wrong I am. Once again, a friendly reminder to check my last erroneous predictions, and now onto this year’s predictions!
President

Barack Obama will be elected president Tuesday with a landslide victory in the electoral college but lacking a stunning mandate to govern in the popular vote. While many pundits are comparing this election to Ronald Reagan’s stunning triumph over Jimmy Carter, Obama does not have the power to steamroll over the Republican establishment so handily. Say what you will about Republican divisive politics, they do tend to turn out die-hard supporters and have delivered the White House to Republicans in the past two elections.
Despite this lack of a clear mandate (not that it isn’t a clearer mandate than what Bush received in 2004), Democrats will have a lot to be happy about in this presidential election. Former red states will join the growing group of blue state, notable among them being Ohio and Florida. This is probably my most provocative prediction, especially since I predicted the same outcome in 2004. This year is different, though, because Obama has shown a clear lead in the polls in both of these states and the issue of the economy should have enough sway on undecided voters to move these states left on the spectrum. McCain will keep Missouri, despite a strong campaign effort by Democrats (I’ve seen too many NASCAR rednecks at Wal-Mart to believe this state is anything but red).
Democrats will also take Nevada, New Mexico and they will come very close in Arizona, indicating a future shift in presidential politics: The solid West. Fast becoming the enviable political prize, the West will become a major focus for Democrats going forward, hoping to forge an presidential election strategy that will fend off challengers in 2012 and 2016.
Republican losses in Virginia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida mean that it will be an early evening for most election watchers. Nov. 5 will be a day of recriminations and pointed fingers. McCain will devolve into a pariah of the party and may forgo his Senate race in 2010. Conservatives will cling to Sarah Palin as the future savior of their party, but Palin will drift into obscurity as the Obama Administration rises to power. Palin’s future will be decided by how she weathers a shifting political landscape in Alaska, which will elect two Democrats for their Congressional delegation. It will be a challenge for the female governor, but mark my words: She’ll be back.
Senate

First, let me say I’m skipping predictions on the U.S. House. The Democrats are going to win, possibly expanding their majority to 250 seats. Sadly, Democrat Judy Baker will lose to Republican Blaine Luetkemeyer in the Missouri District 9 seat. But enough of that, onto more interesting races.
Democrats will ride Obama’s coattails and take a commanding majority in the U.S. Senate, but they will fall short of the almost-impossible-to-capture 60-vote fillibuster-proof majority. The fact of the matter is, Democrats would have to literally have all the planets and the stars align (to a degree far more than they already are) to pull of a stunning victory like that. Republicans will stave off challengers in Mississippi, Kentucky and, sadly, Georgia. Democrats will be victorious in North Carolina, New Hampshire and Alaska, making the night to be no disappointment for the party.
Directly following the election, Joe Lieberman will do what everyone is expecting him to do and cease caucusing with Democrats. He is likely to caucus with Republicans, though he may not completely jump on board with the GOP. Though 2012 is a ways away, voters might not be able to stomach a Republican Lieberman more so than an independent Lieberman. Despite that, the switch will be political damaging for Lieberman as Democrats begin to shore up the base for a Lieberman ouster in 2012.
Though Democrats will be without a filibuster-proof majority, they will still wield tremendous power over the political agenda. Obama’s economic stimulus package and tax plans will have no problem making it to law. However, Republicans will redefine the word “obstruction” in their attempts to stave off left-wing judicial appointments and programs. While McCain will feel ostracized by Republicans for his ‘08 loss, he will find renewed friendship among Democrats who will court him to break any Republican filibusters.
All in all, we’re looking at a blue wave that will rock Washington and return Democrats to power in a way we haven’t seen since 1976. What Democrats will need to remember is that what voters give they can just as easily take way. Carter’s ascent to power on the heels of Watergate is strikingly similar to Obama’s ascent amid the backdrop of a failed Bush presidency. The next four years could be the beginnings of a lasting liberal revolution in the United States or it could be a brief intermission to the conservative revolution that was birthed from the fall of the last Democratic shooting star.
The political discourse will gladly soften in the next week as a lot of this political consequence will be assuaged by the history that will be made Tuesday: Barack Obama will be the first black President of the United States. All Americans should stop for a moment and, no matter their political persuations, concede the enormous significance of this. Martin Luther King, Jr. had a dream, and on Nov. 4, 2008, it will become reality.
OK, enough looking through the crystal ball. Whether you agree or disagree with my assessment, it’s going to be voters who have the final say. So get in line, cast your vote and see for yourself!
God Bless America!




